UPDATE 3/30/2011: My potassium iodide arrived yesterday, but I never even thought about taking it because 1) I have heard no plausible source saying that levels here on the west side of the U.S. are high enough for KI supplementation and 2) there are risks to the thyroid in taking KI. However, the EPA made me nervous with a very suspicious announcement. For "some reason", they decided to up (by over a 1000 times) the allowable levels of various radioactive isotopes in drinking water supplies! [7] How plausible is that a few weeks after the worst radioactive disaster in history?

The EPA, in its nearly infinite wisdom, has decided to "nearly 1000-fold increase for exposure to strontium-90, a 3000 to 100,000-fold hike for exposure to iodine-131; and an almost 25,000 rise for exposure to radioactive nickel-63." [7] What a little strontium-90 among friends?", I always say. NOTE: This reference is from Berkeley's Department of Nuclear Engineering.

OOf course, the net is full of the C words: "coverup", "collusion" and "conspiracy". I don't know if I'd go that far, but it does make me wonder if I should be breaking open that bottle of KI to protect my kids...

UPDATE 3/16/2011E 3/16/2011: The good news is that the winds have not yet headed directly into Tokyo, where radiation levels have increased slightly but not alarmingly. Unfortunately, there are cracks in containment vessels 2 and 3 and radiation levels are high enough at the plant that all workers will soon be removed, meaning no more sea water will even be pumped in. It appears we are headed into an uncontrolled situation which could lead to an explosion within the containment vessels. If this occurs, we could easily have a situation worse than Chernobyl. [6]

UPDATE 3/16/2011 (Part 2): Potassium iodide has now sold out of all locations in surrounding states such as Arizona, etc. The experts that I have seen have so far stated that all purchases of potassium iodide in the U.S. are a waste of money as we will not see a significant rise in radiation here. Have they taken into account what would happen, though, if two of the plants in Japan had explosions and open containment vessels? Time will tell...

As of this writing (3/15/2011), radiation levels are rising in Japan and officials are concerned that tonight or tomorrow significant radiation could blow into Tokyo, exposing its citizens to approximately to 10-20 times normal radiation levels. The problem actually began yesterday with several hydrogen explosions at the Fukuyama plant, leaving a nuclear storage pond on fire. The ensuing steam began leaking small amounts of radiation into the atmosphere at levels detectable on U.S. naval ships and helicopters 60 miles away.

Of course, our hearts go out to the Japanese people primarily, but I want to bring up a potentially important question for those of us in the western United States: is it time to purchase some potassium iodide tablets? The reason that it may be time to contemplate this for some of us is that there are reports that potassium iodide supplies are already running out along the western coastal states of California, Washington and Oregon. [1]

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Now imagine the following very possible scenario: one or more of the cores melt at Fukuyama and winds pull the radiation over the ocean and into the United States. If this were to occur, the radiation would hit our coast in 6-12 days. As radiation levels rise, it is possible that purchases and/or shipping of potassium iodide would become backlogged and hard to obtain?

CAUTION: Health officials are warning not to take potassium iodide unless you are actually exposed to radition. It can potentially affect the thyroid negatively and, therefore, should only be taken if absolutely necessary.

I don't know the answer to that but am personally not taking any chances. Potassium iodide is inexpensive and easy to manufacture, but how could supplement manufacturers possibly have conceived of or anticipated this kind of scenario?

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Keep in mind, though, that this is unlikely to be of the magnitude of Chernobyl. Chernobyl had no real containment vessel and, of course, that is not the case in Fukuyama. Chernobyl was so powerful that it resulted in thousands of new cases of thyroid cancer in surrounding areas. [2] Of particular importance to those with families is that children and youth exposed to elevated radiation levels in the Ukraine, the country where Chernobyl occurred, were at much higher risks of thyroid cancers. [5] Researchers noted that contamination occurred from consumption of milk and other products that had absorbed radiation.

NOTE: The thyroid is particularly vulnerable to radition and absorbs about a thousand times the levels of other body tissues. Potassium iodide actually only protects - and it is not perfect protection - the thyroid and not other parts of the body.

So how many much cancer did Chernobyl cause in farther away areas such as Western Europe and Scandanavia? This is difficult to determine with any precision and conclusions are controversial. However, WHO estimated that "up to 5 000 additional cancer deaths may occur in this population from radiation exposure, or about 0.6% of the cancer deaths expected in this population due to other causes." [3] This is not a large increase but is, of course, a definite cause for concern.

In addition, fallout radiation from Hiroshima was known to increase certain kinds of leukemia. One study from Sweden was particularly sobering as well, as it found that some Swedish residents experienced a net increase in total cancer deaths following Chernobyl. [4] Some parts of Sweden got hit fairly hard with radioactive fallout due to rains that brought the toxins down into populated areas.

Again, radiation levels are unlikely to be as high in the United States due to efforts to avoid a meltdown, containment structures and the distances involved. However, to play it safe, I've got my potassium iodide on order just in case...

REFERENCES:

1) hthttp://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2011/03/dont-take-potassium-iodide-unless-you.html

2) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/1615299.stm

3) http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs303/en/index.html

4) http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041121220635.htm

5) http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080219155636.htm

6) http://abcnews.go.com/International/japan-nuclear-crisis-rising-radiation-levels-halt-fukushima/story?id=13146516&page=2

7) http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/node/2162

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