« on: October 23, 2016, 09:27:43 am »
Futura’s report on their Eroxon trial is a masterpiece of vacuous marketing rhetoric. The only useful fact we’re told about the clinical efficacy of Eroxon is that, for patients with anything other than mild dysfunction, the medication was no better than the placebo as far achieving a reasonable improvement in erectile function is concerned. ‘Reasonable’ here means at least a modest 4-point increase on the IIEF-EF scale. (The IIEF-EF scale runs from 6 to 30.)
The ‘mild’ patients were twice as likely to report a reasonable improvement compared to those taking the placebo. But Futura declines to give the numbers. And you might guess that perhaps about 5% of placebo-taking patients reported a reasonable improvement; therefore perhaps only 10% of even mildly dysfunction patients taking Eroxon reported a reasonable improvement? Not impressive.
James Barder, Futura’s CEO, talks of 82% of the patients in the mild group achieving erections within ten minutes. But, if 90% of these patients received no worthwhile improvement, what can he mean? The answer is that in trials based on the IIEF Questionnaire an erection doesn’t mean what most of us think it means. It simply means any transient slight enlargement of the penis. (And surely in the mild category you’d achieve at least that with no medication anyway?)
I distrust reports, such as Futura’s report, which repeatedly refer to ‘statistically significant’ or ‘highly statistically significant’ results, seemingly hoping the reader will confuse ‘statistically significant’ with ‘clinically significant’. (You can, of course, have ‘highly significant statistics’ proving there is no clinical significance at all.)
It seems, simply on Futura’s evidence, that Eroxon will, for the vast majority of us, be a waste of time.
I posted some thoughts on the superficially similar Vitaros a couple of years ago. Vitaros is Apricus Biosciences’ only product. When Apricus announced Vitaros in 2011 their share price was above $5.60. On Friday it was 28 cents. Futura’s share price, which increased 200% on the announcement of the ‘successful’ Eroxon trial, may eventually go the same way. However, I intend, as soon as it’s possible, to get some Eroxon on a ‘named patient’ basis and if, against all expectations, it works, I shall buy lots of Futura shares.